Joe Stevenson vs. Diego Sanchez

The UFC hasn’t been hyping up the fact that both Diego Sanchez and Joe Stevenson are Ultimate Fighter winners. Then again, Bisping/Rashad had that promotion going for it and it didn’t really live up to the hype.

On paper Sanchez and Stevenson should be a recipe for a fight that will doesn’t go to a decision. Stevenson has hit the ceiling in the 155 division, losing matches in decisive fashion to B.J. Penn and Kenny Florian.

Sanchez on the other hand is coming off an impressive TKO over the recently released Luigi Fioravanti. This drop in weight class from welterweight to lightweight is curious since fighters traditionally only do this after at least one loss. In fact, Diego had a fight scheduled with the #1 welterweight contender Thiago Alves before dropping out due to injury. It’s likely he decided that a drop to 155 would be smart given that top welterweights Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves are over-sized welterweights. Diego Sanchez has looked a little small for 170 in recent years so this move isn’t as surprising as it seems. He says that he’s walking around at 166 right now (fully hydrated) so he shouldn’t have a problem with the weight cut.

Looking at their respective skill sets, Sanchez has the advantage any where the fight goes, albeit not by a large margin. Neither is known as “great” strikers but Diego has been slowly changing that perception of himself, which is more than we can say for Joe. And they’re both great wrestlers but Diego has had more luck getting on top of his opponents.

For submissions, there’s no denying that Joe has had great success with his guillotine. However it’s a Hail-Mary defensive maneuver against a takedown. When he does get put on the ground by a superior grappler he winds up getting submitted. Ever since season 1 of The Reality Show we’ve known about Diego’s awesome submission skills. We also know that he’s never tapped out (or knocked out) in a MMA fight.

The only thing you could say in Joe’s defense is that he’s recently faced a slightly higher caliber of competition than Diego. Sanchez’s two submission losses to Koscheck and Fitch have prevented him from getting his first UFC title shot. Both Joe and Diego need a win to prove they’re worthy of being in the top 5-contender list.

Diego has more potential to be that guy because Joe has already failed to capture the title as a lightweight. We may not see a finish but Diego Sanchez is likely to get a hard-fought win this Saturday.

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