Minotauro Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

Minotauro Nogueira looked great in his dismantling of Randy Couture. That fight proved his loss to Frank Mir was just a fluke (sorry Frank). At the very least, had Nogueira been healthy, Frank would have needed to work a lot harder to get the win. This revelation comes as a relief to Big Nog fans, as he’ll need every bit of strength he can muster to deal with Cain Velasquez.

Nogueira will need to be as good as he was against Randy and more. Most importantly, he’ll need to be crafty. Cain will surely come in like a freight train. Nog needs to be prepared to spend some time on his back. Knowing him, he won’t panic. At the very least, he should be able to absorb some punishment. Hopefully, he’ll find a way to sweep Cain.

Cain Velasquez has never had to defend against a top-level submission artist. On the ground, Minotauro is dangerous in any position. However his top game is deadly. It’s in that position that Cain will be most vulnerable. If Nogueira gets on top, Cain will feel fear for the first time in his MMA career.

If Cain uses his takedowns sparingly, he’ll have better luck avoiding submissions. When he does get on top, he should be very careful. Of course, he should try to do some damage. But, he should maintain a high posture. If he feels Nogueira is starting to get a hold of him, Cain should stand back up.

Both men are very good strikers. Still, Cain doesn’t have the miles of battle damage that Nogueira does. Therefore, Velasquez has the edge while standing. When Nogueira starts to find his rhythm, Cain should utilize his wrestling.

This fight is hard to call. I hate to count out Nogueira again. However Cain’s youth will come in handy as the fight goes on. Granted, Nogueira is extremely hard to finish. However Cain has a good chance of grinding out a win here. If he doesn’t get too excited, he’s got the better odds of winning a decision.

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